Mma Betting Odds Explained
UFC betting odds explained. Looking to make your first bet on the UFC? Or just curious as to who the Vegas Bookmakers are favouring to win a particular fight? Our guide below takes you through the basics of UFC betting…
UFC Betting Odds Explained: Moneyline vs Decimal vs Fractional
The favorite is represented by the minus sign (-), while the underdog is represented by the plus sign (+). You’ll also notice that odds are usually based on bettors wagering $100. When you see +110 or -110, it means that the juice or vig – what the sportsbook collects – is $10. The UFC is back for another card in Las Vegas with Curtis Blaydes squaring off against Derrick Lewis in a pivotal Heavyweight matchup. We’ve got plenty of fights to check out and break down the UFC odds and betting picks for UFC Vegas 19. UFC Odds + Betting Picks UFC Vegas 19: Blaydes vs. Donald Cerrone to win: (+245) The negative moneyline odds indicate that McGregor was the betting favorite in this fight against Cerrone and that a $290 wager on McGregor would be required to return $100 profit. Alternatively, those betting on Cerrone, who was the underdog in this main event, would require only a $100 wager to win $245.
There are three main odds systems employed by UFC and MMA bookmakers in general. These are known as the “American Moneyline”, “European Decimal” and “UK Fractional” Odds formats.
The table below compares these three formats for a r of example probabilities:
UFC Betting Odds Explained – Probability of event occurring vs Different Odds Formats
American Moneyline UFC Betting Odds
This is the odds format used by the Vegas Bookmakers. An example looks something like this:
Henry Cejudo (+180) vs. Joseph Benavidez (-260)
The odds are highlighted in blue. First look at whether the odds offered are a negative or positive number. A negative (-) number indicates a betting favorite while a positive (+) indicates a betting underdog. So in the above example, Benevidez is the bookies favorite.
- Negative odds (e.g. -260):The number indicates how much you would have to bet to win $100.
- Positive odds (e.g. +180): The number indicates what you will win per $100 placed.
Using the above example again: you would have to place $260 on Benevidez to win $100 profit, whereas $100 placed on Cejudo wins you $180 profit.
Any odds of 100 indicates an even outcome i.e. you will win whatever the value of the stake you put down.
European Decimal UFC Betting Odds
This is, in our opinion, the most intuitive odds format. The odds value simply indicates the total payout you will get for your bet. For example, decimal odds of 1.5 would mean if you place a $100 bet you will get back $150 total.
Converting the above betting example into decimal format gives:
Henry Cejudo (2.80) vs. Joseph Benavidez (1.38)
So, if you placed $100 on Cejudo you would win $180 profit + your original stake of $100 = $280 total (or $100 x 2.80). For Benavidez you would win $38 profit + your original stake of $100 = $138 (or 100 x 1.38).
You can see in this format that the “evens” point is odds of 2.00.
UK Fractional UFC Betting Odds
The last UFC betting odds format is used primarily in the UK and for us is the most baffling. The Fractional format expresses the odds as the fraction of your original stake you will win. So using the the above example again:
Henry Cejudo (9/5) vs. Joseph Benavidez (19/50)
For Cejudo the odds of 9/5 represents a profit of 1.8 x times your original stake. If you then add 1 for your original stake you end up back at 2.8 x original stake total as per the decimal format.
What is a Prop Bet?
A prop bet, short for a proposition bet, is an exotic bet on an occurrence or non-occurrence not directly affecting the fight’s final outcome, as opposed to a match bet on who will win the fight. Prop bets usually focus on event stats, like number of points awarded, method of victory and other occurrences not necessarily related to the winner of the bout.
While matchup betting is by far the most common way to bet on UFC, prop bets offer knowledgeable bettors extremely favorable odds and the chance at tremendous profits.
Most Popular Types MMA Prop Bets
While some sportsbooks offer a variety of UFC prop bets, these are by far the most popular with bettors:
Method of Victory. This is a bet based on how the fight will end for a particular fighter. KO/TKO, Submission or Decision. An example could be Anderson Silva to win by Submission on his next fight.
Make sure to read fighter statistics to know how he usually wins fights, this prop bet is fairly easy to use. Both ESPN Go, MMA (source 1) and the UFC official statistical site (source 2) offer great insights on fighter data. The UFC uses FightMetric data, the best MMA statistical provider which breaks down fighter profiles by record statistics and skill breakdown.
Fight to Go the Distance. A very easy prop bet to understand. Will the fight cover the entire length of rounds with no KO/TKO or submission? Most top fighters liquidate their opponents rather fast, so consider this prop bets with lower category fighters that are still shy on the ring.
Remember the boxing fight between Pacquiao vs Mayweather? Two of the world’s greatest who barely damaged each other and went the distance. Bettors could have predicted this by understanding it was all a commercial setup for sponsors, not a real fight. How to bet on boxing is very similar to MMA.
Round Betting. A fairly difficult prop bet, you can either decide on which round the fight will end, or even more challenging, determine which fighter will win and on what the round.
This bet is almost completely left to chance, unless you have a deep knowledge of a fighter’s trend to end things on a specific round. Trends in statistics will be your main tool here. Round Betting can also be taken through live MMA bets, it is much easier to determine along the fight how it could end.
Points Handicap. This is a type of over/under prop bet. For example, you can bet on Silva 3.5 points handicap. This means that when the judge’s scores are combined Silva would need to win 4 or more rounds to win the bet. The main reason sportsbooks set the point handicap on an uneven number is to avoid “push” or a tie.
Handicap betting is the same as the point spread, a common bet term in american sports betting.
FOTN Prop Betting
FOTN stands for “Fighter of the Night”, which consists of three awards given by the UFC:
– Knockout of the Night (KOTN)
– Submission of the night (SOTN)
– Fight of the Night (FOTN)
Bettors familiar with the styles and histories of the fighters can take advantage of the long odds by betting on the winners of these awards. We can expect fighters on the rise to win.
Fight of the Night. Fairly straightforward. After each event, one fight is selected as the night’s best. Every fight is eligible, including undercard fights, which means that there are a large number of options per show. This is good option for experienced bettors, since it stretches the odds on every fight. Odds can range from around +400 to higher than +1000. It’s worth noting that, generally, the main event generates by far the most action, which adds even more value to betting on other fights.
Knockout of the Night. Knockout of the Night is one of the trickier awards to pick, as so many fights end on one-punch knockouts at unexpected times. With odds starting at +500, though, the right pick can produce a great payout. It’s valuable to look at not only which fighters have a lot of knockout wins, but at which fighters on the card have a history of being knocked out.
Submission of the Night. Submission of the Night is traditionally the easiest of the three post-fight awards to pick. Nearly every fighter has a chance to land a lucky punch and score a big knockout, but the number of fighters proficient in finishing fights with submissions is much smaller.
Similarly, it is much easier to pick out the fighters who, historically, have shown poor submission defense. With a much more limited pool to choose from and odds in the +500 to +1500 range, Submission of the Night offers a great value proposition to educated bettors.
There are a lot more MMA betting types smart bettors can take advantage of. Be sure to check them all.
Value in Prop Bets
Obviously, a prop bet is a higher-risk/higher-reward wager than betting on the winner of a single fight. You are betting at long odds for the chance of high payout. Risk-averse gamblers who aren’t willing to bet long odds for a big prize should remember that making multiple prop bets on the same show is a great way to safely make money. Sometimes sportsbooks forbid more than one bet on the same event, so more than one account with different sites is recommended.
Mma Betting Odds
For instance, if the odds for Submission of the Night are around +500, and you make three bets, a win by any of the three fighters you selected will yield +200 in return. When you consider that odds on these prop bets can go as high as +1500, an educated series of bets can be a near-guarantee of a sizable return.
Clearly, prop betting is a fun, interesting, and potentially hugely profitable way to make money betting on UFC.
Citations
(1) espn.go.com, MMA, 2016
Current Betting Odds Ufc
(2) ufc.com UFC Statistical Site, 2016
Mma Betting Odds Explained
Copyright MMAodds.com 2016